Photo credit/Osservatorio Mashrek-Nino Orto
Netanyahu Warns Iran: ‘Big Mistake, You Will Pay for It’—Israel Vows Retaliation Against Strategic Targets
Nino Orto reporting from Israel
Two critical decisions are looming in the Middle East, each with the potential to reshape the region’s geopolitical landscape.
The first decision rests with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, who must now determine how to respond following Iran’s recent missile barrage on central Israel and the expected retaliation from Tel Aviv. Tehran’s options are limited, ranging again from a large-scale strike on Israel to a more targeted, painful response, something Iran has been striving for without success. Another possibility is strategic patience—rebuilding Hezbollah’s capabilities to strike Israel later, when the group has recovered.
On the other side, Israeli leadership is now weighing the possibility of a pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Hezbollah and Hamas, once considered major deterrents for Israel, have suffered heavy blows, leaving Iran’s retaliatory capabilities weakened. The timing may also be politically favorauble for Israel, with the U.S. administration less likely to block action during a period of regional upheaval.
Israel is reportedly preparing for a significant strike on Iran in the coming days, potentially targeting the country’s oil installations. The planned response follows an extensive Iranian missile attack on Israel the previous night. Senior Israeli officials have indicated that while the cabinet meeting concluded with a clear understanding that a response is imminent, the exact scope and timing remain undecided, partly due to ongoing efforts to coordinate with the U.S. The U.S. supports an Israeli counterstrike but insists that it be calculated to avoid escalating tensions further. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is expected to discuss the situation with President Biden, as both sides weigh the potential fallout of any Iranian retaliation, which could dramatically shift the regional dynamic.
However, significant risks remain. Even if Israel manages to destroy 40% of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure in a surprise attack, this might not fully neutralize the threat. Furthermore, such an attack could grant Tehran the legitimacy it seeks to openly pursue nuclear weapons and escalate the conflict into a prolonged regional war. Iran’s ability to retaliate could still pose a military threat via Hamas and Hezbollah, and there are concerns about the involvement of Russia, whose air defense capabilities in the region could target Israeli planes.
Ultimately, both nations stand at a crossroads, with decisions that could either avert or ignite a far-reaching conflict.
