Photo credit/Osservatorio Mashrek-Nino Orto
Time is ticking towards a potential major conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, while diplomatic efforts frantically attempt to prevent an escalation that could set the entire region ablaze. Despite international powers pushing for a ceasefire to halt hostilities, the drums of war echo on both sides of the border. But why is this happening?
Nino Orto reporting from Israel
NASRALLAH’S GAMBLE
Hezbollah has been strengthening its capabilities and influence within the Lebanese political landscape for the past forty years, positioning itself as the defender of Lebanon and its people. After the 2006 war with Israel, Hezbollah further cemented its role as the last line of defense against any Israeli aggression.
However, the Hamas attack on October 7th has shifted the dynamics. Hezbollah’s long-standing support for the Palestinian cause has now tied the Lebanese organization more closely to it. In response to the attack, Hezbollah has expressed solidarity with Hamas, initiating low-intensity operations against northern Israeli communities. These actions have forced residents to flee their homes and caused significant economic disruption in the northern Israeli region.
Since the beginning of the war in Gaza, Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has repeatedly stated that halting attacks on the Palestinian enclave would lead to an end to rocket launches into Israeli territory. However, since September, Israel’s swift and aggressive strikes on Hezbollah’s leadership and infrastructure have placed Nasrallah in a difficult position. These operations have severely weakened Hezbollah’s chain of command across various sectors and destroyed thousands of missiles and stockpiles that the group had accumulated over nearly two decades.
While Nasrallah appears committed to maintaining the controlled war of attrition that has unfolded since October 2023, Israel seems determined to escalate in order to fully restore the deterrence it had before the conflict and ensure the safe return of its northern residents.
Israel’s demands for Hezbollah to halt its operations in Lebanon and avoid a full-scale war are clear: Hezbollah must retreat behind the Litani River and cease all attacks on Israeli territory, regardless of the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
Nasrallah faces a critical dilemma. On one hand, refraining from further attacks risks diminishing his prestige in the Arab world and among Hezbollah’s own supporters and fighters. On the other hand, launching a full-scale assault would likely damage his credibility in Lebanon’s political landscape, as many in the country—especially other communities—view Hezbollah as responsible for provoking Israel’s military actions in Lebanon.
Additionally, Iranian interests play a key role in restraining Hezbollah from engaging in reckless attacks on Tel Aviv, as losing Hezbollah, Iran’s most valuable proxy in its regional power struggle with Israel, would be a significant blow to Tehran.
Nasrallah is caught between a rock and a hard place. With no way out that doesn’t risk either losing his credibility or leaving Hezbollah severely weakened by the current situation, the political settlement is the only solution for his impasse.
ISRAEL NEED TO QUICK DECIDE: EITHER WAR OR POLITICAL SETTLE
Across the border, these same concerns take on a different form, yet weigh just as heavily. Netanyahu has long refrained from taking action in the north, and since the start of the war, he has consistently instructed the IDF to keep the confrontation with Hezbollah to a low-intensity exchange of blows limited to the border area. The primary reason for this restraint is the Israeli army’s inability to engage in a full-scale war on two fronts without risking a national crisis that could halt the country’s economic activities and disrupt daily life.
From the beginning, the political leadership in Israel prioritized dismantling Hamas in Gaza and gaining control of the Palestinian enclave from a security standpoint, while also seeking a political deal to secure the release of hostages held by Hamas.
Now that a political settlement with Hamas appears unlikely, the Prime Minister and the Israeli army have shifted their focus to the north, aiming to ensure the safe return of all residents.
This situation has created a dilemma for Tel Aviv as well. While a growing segment of the population is pushing for a military resolution to the situation with Hezbollah, a full-scale war with the Lebanese militia brings numerous uncertainties, none of which are favorable from Israel’s perspective.
A ground invasion of Lebanon would come at a high cost, both in terms of soldiers’ lives and widespread destruction, including in central Israel and Tel Aviv, which could face heavy rocket barrages and damage to vital infrastructure. The political fallout from such an operation could further isolate Israel on the international stage and risk alienating the political support of U.S., regardless of which administration takes power in the upcoming election.
A political settlement will spare Israel from taking risk and avoid destruction but it comes with its own risks. Hezbollah’s demand to stop Israeli air force flights over Lebanese skies, while Israel’s request for a strict control mechanism to prevent the transfer of new weapons to Hezbollah. It is doubtful whether an effective mechanism can be established to prevent arms smuggling into Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon, which is why Israel would not agree to a ban on flights over Lebanon.
Israel is now grappling with a critical question: excluding political considerations, will the continuation of the fighting result in a better agreement? At present, Israeli intelligence is unable to provide a definitive answer, leaving the country in a position where it is more likely to continue the conflict, driven by hope rather than certainty that it will lead to improved terms. Over the past ten days, the IDF and Mossad have demonstrated remarkable intelligence capabilities, dealing significant blows to Hezbollah.
However, while Hezbollah has been weakened, it remains far from paralyzed, retaining the capacity to make strategic decisions. The greatest risk for Israel is that this ongoing, calculated exchange of strikes could spiral into a prolonged war of attrition—one in which Hezbollah holds a crucial advantage, as its ability to endure such a conflict may outlast Israel’s.
