Photo credit: sina drakhshani on Unsplash
Years of sanctions have crippled its oil exports, its currency has collapsed, and a generation of young Iranians are increasingly disconnected from the ideological fervour that animated the 1979 revolution.
The prospect of a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities is no longer theoretical. It is a scenario increasingly spoken about in closed-door meetings in Washington, Tel Aviv, and European capitals, and one that American officials now acknowledge as a growing likelihood. The Israeli government, long alarmed by Iran’s advancing nuclear program, appears to be preparing for what it considers a narrowing window to act.
If such an attack were to take place, the consequences would be far-reaching and potentially irreversible. It would likely ignite a regional conflict involving Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian proxies in Syria and Iraq, and destabiliSe fragile fronts from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean. Iran’s response could be ferocious, but even more dangerous than the immediate retaliation would be what follows: the real possibility of strategic collapse for the Islamic Republic.
Tehran’s ruling regime is under intense pressure. The nuclear negotiations with the United States, after years of halting progress, are now verging on collapse. In recent days, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissed the possibility that the talks -held indirectly in Oman- would “reach a conclusion,” stating bluntly that Tehran would not wait for American permission to pursue its nuclear ambitions. In the same breath, he snobbed the core demand from Washington that Iran abandon uranium enrichment -as “nonsense.”
But behind Khamenei’s defiance is a much more precarious truth: Iran has no plan B. Its allies-China and Russia-are increasingly preoccupied. Beijing is caught in a high-stakes trade standoff with the United States, while Moscow remains mired in the long and costly war in Ukraine. Neither has the political capital or economic incentive to bail out Tehran if its confrontation with the West escalates into open conflict. And even among Iran’s remaining sympathisers, the appetite for another Middle Eastern crisis is vanishing.
The situation on the ground is just as bleak. Iran’s economy is on life support. Years of sanctions have crippled its oil exports, its currency has collapsed, and a generation of young Iranians are increasingly disconnected from the ideological fervor that animated the 1979 revolution. The regime is confronting widespread domestic discontent, fueled by water shortages, rolling blackouts, and a fundamental erosion of trust in its leadership. Even as it clings to its regional ambitions-arming militias, propping up allies, projecting power -the center in Tehran is weakening.
The diplomatic impasse has only deepened this instability. The United States, under pressure from both allies and Congress, has hardened its position, now demanding a complete end to enrichment and meaningful discussions on Iran’s ballistic missile program. European powers, once cautious and conciliatory, have warned that without a breakthrough by summer, they may seek to reinstate UN sanctions. Meanwhile, American and Israeli officials are coordinating closely, with senior figures in Washington acknowledging that a strike on Iran is no longer off the table.
For Tehran, the danger is existential. If talks fail and Israel moves forward militarily, the regime could be faced with cascading crises: economic implosion, popular revolt, and international isolation deeper than ever before. It would be left to rely on worn alliances, dwindling cash reserves, and the uncertain loyalty of its proxies. A military confrontation, combined with a diplomatic freeze, could bring the Islamic Republic to the edge.
There is still a narrow path away from this cliff. But it would require Tehran to do something the current leadership has long resisted: compromise. That would mean reengaging seriously with the West, curbing enrichment, and opening itself up to international inspections and negotiations – not as surrender, but as survival. It would also require Washington and its allies to offer realistic, face-saving incentives that go beyond punishment and threats. Time, however, is running out.
As 2025 approaches, Iran is not just facing another diplomatic deadlock – it is approaching a moment of reckoning. A regime built on resistance and revolution is now being tested by the very forces it once mastered: confrontation, endurance, and strategic ambiguity. But those tools may no longer be enough.
