Photo credit/Osservatorio Mashrek-Nino Orto
While the exchange of fire between the Israeli army and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah escalates in northern Israel, many wonder where this will lead in the future.
Last week, the Israeli government made it clear that “strong actions” will be taken to restore security for all the Israeli communities living along the border with Lebanon, including the possibility of a wide-scale war. On October 7th, the northern part of the country was evacuated due to fears of infiltration by Lebanese militants, and tens of thousands of people have been displaced since then .
The Israeli Defence Forces has been conducting air raids against Hezbollah fighters and artillery positions for months, but attacks from both sides have escalated instead of leading to a political compromise. The consequences of having an entire part of the country not functioning are quickly reaching a turning point and becoming unsustainable for the Israeli government.
Without an agreement, this will likely lead to a military confrontation between the two parties.
The potential conflict between Israel and Hezbollah could unfold in three major scenarios:
A full-scale war: Israel could launch attacks by air, land, and sea across all of Lebanon, without differentiating between the militia, the national army, and civilians. This worst-case scenario would involve the civilian population on both sides and, without clear rules of engagement, could escalate into a war between nations with significant political implications.
Creation of a buffer zone: This would involve a ground invasion of Lebanon up to the Litani River. The campaign would push back Hezbollah fighters and deny the militia artillery and rocket positions close to the Israeli borders. While the rest of both countries might be spared, this scenario would involve thousands of soldiers and a bloody guerrilla campaign that could last for months, potentially exposing the entire region to a wave of terrorism and destabilizing other nations.
An air campaign: The IDF could launch air strikes to force civilians and Hezbollah militants away from the border, creating a buffer zone. The aim would be to compel the Lebanese militia to seek a political solution without dragging Israel into a full-scale war that could significantly diminish Hezbollah’s presence in Lebanon and the region.
