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The new U.S. administration has already reshaped the strategic priorities of the 21st century.
In the heart of 21st-century global competition, it is no longer just oil and gas that shape geopolitics but also elements invisible to most: rare earths. These minerals, essential for advanced technologies such as semiconductors, batteries, radars, and hypersonic missiles, have become the new battleground between superpowers. In his second term, President Donald Trump has launched a direct challenge to China, aiming to break America’s dependence on Beijing and secure an independent and reliable supply of these strategic resources. Just as nations in the last century fought over oil fields to fuel their economies and military power, today’s race is about dominating rare earths, in an economic and geopolitical battle that will define future global power balances.
The Importance of Rare Earths in U.S. Strategy
Rare earth elements, a group of 17 critical metals used in advanced weaponry, green technologies, and electronic devices, are now central to U.S. industrial policies. The United States must secure a stable supply of these critical minerals to protect national security, as elements like cobalt, gallium, and rare earths are essential for producing superalloys, semiconductors, and permanent magnets—key components in advanced technologies like jet engines, quantum computers, and military radars.
However, the U.S. currently faces an alarming dependence on supply chains controlled by China, with nearly no domestic refining capacity for crucial minerals, leaving the country vulnerable to its primary geopolitical adversary. Despite efforts from both the Trump and Biden administrations—including invoking the Defense Production Act, establishing the Minerals Security Partnership, and implementing financial incentives through laws such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act—these measures have proven insufficient to reduce reliance on China and establish an independent domestic supply chain.
To tackle this challenge, the U.S. government must implement a structured industrial policy with key actions such as opening federal lands for critical mineral extraction, expanding loan programs for mining companies, strengthening government procurement commitments to support domestic production, and streamlining permitting processes for mining projects on federal land. Currently, lengthy approval times discourage investment due to delayed financial returns.
During his first term, Trump sought to diversify supply sources by incentivizing mining investments in the U.S. and forging strategic alliances. Now, his approach has intensified, focusing on direct control of resource-rich territories through aggressive “carrot and stick” policies that are straining not only international relations but also long-standing alliances.
Trump’s Moves: Canada, Greenland, and Ukraine
Canada, Greenland, and Ukraine share a pivotal commonality: vast untapped reserves of rare earth minerals critical to modern technology and defense. For the U.S.—facing a supply chain chokehold by China—these regions represent a geopolitical lifeline. Canada’s mining-friendly policies and Arctic resources, Greenland’s ice-locked strategic deposits, and Ukraine’s war-tapped but resource-rich terrain have all emerged as focal points in Trump’s push to rewire global supply chains and reducing reliance on China-dominated supply chains.
However, achieving these goals faces significant political, economic, and logistical hurdles. His idea of annexing Canada sparked outrage in Ottawa and among Western allies, while his proposal to acquire Greenland was met with skepticism and strong protests from both Copenhagen and Nuuk. In Ukraine, Trump’s attempt to leverage untapped mineral resources in exchange for continued military support highlights the risks of making unrealistic economic promises in a war-torn context. Meanwhile, his focus on controlling the Panama Canal—strategic for global raw material transportation—aligns with efforts to counter China’s influence in the region but could trigger tensions with local governments.
As Trump’s second-term rhetoric emphasizes the urgency of mineral independence from adversaries, the feasibility of these strategies remains uncertain and risks becoming a series of political maneuvers with little tangible impact.
China’s Role and the Tech War
Critical minerals have become a key element of U.S. foreign policy, reflecting a growing awareness of their strategic importance in an increasingly technology-driven world. Their significance extends beyond industry, directly impacting national security, energy transition, and technological dominance.
For decades, Beijing has controlled the global rare earth market, leveraging its dominance in extraction, processing, and distribution to strengthen its economic and political influence. This has alarmed Washington, as China has used its mineral exports as a geopolitical tool, prompting the U.S. to accelerate efforts to diversify its supply sources.
The Biden administration promoted tax incentives and alliances with partners to bolster domestic and regional production. However, with Trump’s return to the White House, the issue has gained even greater prominence. His administration is pushing more aggressive strategies, ranging from expanding domestic mining operations to securing new international agreements.
In this context, Trump’s focus on resource-rich regions like Canada, Greenland, and Ukraine appears to be part of a broader global race to control materials essential for 21st-century economic and military supremacy.
A New Cold War?
China has built a near-monopoly in rare earth production and refining, becoming the dominant global player and leaving the U.S. highly dependent on Beijing for these critical materials. Through a combination of strategic industrial policies, lower production costs, and less restrictive environmental regulations, China has made rare earth separation and refining far more cost-effective than in other nations, discouraging alternative developments in countries with stricter environmental laws.
This dominance has significant economic and geopolitical implications, allowing China to directly influence the availability and pricing of rare earths, making key U.S. industries—ranging from semiconductor production to advanced military technologies—highly vulnerable. Furthermore, China has already demonstrated its willingness to use rare earths as a geopolitical weapon, restricting exports to countries involved in diplomatic or trade disputes, as seen with Japan in 2010. The risk of Beijing implementing similar measures against the U.S. is real, with potentially devastating consequences for America’s technology industry and national security.
The recent Pentagon decision to halt F-35 fighter jet deliveries due to the discovery of Chinese-sourced rare earth components highlights the extent of China’s penetration into the U.S. supply chain and the danger of these materials being used for espionage or economic coercion. In this scenario, China not only controls the extraction and refining of rare earths but also a significant portion of the global production chain, reinforcing its competitive advantage and limiting U.S. efforts to develop an independent industry.
If the U.S. fails to quickly implement policies to diversify rare earth supply sources, boost recycling from electronic waste, and develop more environmentally friendly separation technologies, it risks repeating past mistakes related to oil dependency, leaving the country vulnerable and compromising its economic stability and national security.
Trump’s focus on rare earths is not just an economic strategy but a geopolitical move to secure U.S. control over the critical resources of the 21st century. As the U.S. seeks to build a more secure supply chain, China continues to use rare earths as a strategic leverage in global negotiations. The future of U.S.-China relations may largely depend on how this challenge is managed in the coming years.
