Osservatorio Mashrek caution that HTS’s military successes, including the recent capture of Damascus, mask an unsettling reality: extremist networks often flourish in times of political upheaval and state collapse
As rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seize control of Damascus and proclaim the end of Bashar al-Assad’s five-decade rule, the future of Syria hangs in the balance. This dramatic shift marks a historic turning point in the nation’s long and bloody civil war, yet the chaos accompanying it has raised urgent questions about whether the region is on the brink of a renewed jihadist resurgence.
The Power Vacuum and the Risk of Extremism
The fall of Damascus is a symbolic and strategic victory for HTS, whose leader, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, has sought to rebrand the group as a nationalist force focused on overthrowing Assad. However, despite these efforts, HTS remains internationally designated as a terrorist organization with roots in al-Qaeda. This legacy, combined with its repressive governance in opposition-held territories, has raised fears that jihadist ideologies could thrive in the power vacuum created by Assad’s collapse.
Osservatorio Mashrek caution that HTS’s military successes, including the recent capture of Damascus, mask an unsettling reality: extremist networks often flourish in times of political upheaval and state collapse. With vast swathes of Syria now under the control of factions with histories of jihadist connections, the risk of transnational extremist movements regrouping is alarmingly high.
The Situation in al-Hol Camp: A Breeding Ground for Radicalisation
Compounding these fears is the ongoing humanitarian disaster in the al-Hol refugee camp in northeastern Syria. Home to approximately 54,000 residents, including thousands of children, the camp has become a hub for extremist recruitment. Groups like the Cubs of the Caliphate openly target children, indoctrinating a new generation into jihadist ideologies. The deteriorating living conditions—marked by a lack of food, education, and security—have created fertile ground for extremism to take root.
While Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have worked tirelessly to manage the camp and prevent ISIS sleeper cells from gaining control, they face significant challenges. Recent violence, exacerbated by the need to defend Kurdish territories against Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) offensives, has further limited their ability to address the growing threat within al-Hol.
Perhaps the most pressing concern is the fate of Syria’s children, particularly those in al-Hol. Many have grown up knowing nothing but war and displacement, with no access to education or opportunities beyond the extremist narratives surrounding them. The estimated 60 babies born in the camp each month add to this vulnerable population, creating a growing generation at risk of being lost to extremism.
Kurdish Territories Under Threat
The capture of Aleppo and its surrounding areas by HTS and the Turkish-backed SNA has intensified the plight of Syria’s Kurdish population, escalating a humanitarian crisis in the region. Tens of thousands of Kurds, forcibly displaced from areas such as Tel Rifaat and adjacent villages, are fleeing in freezing conditions, many heading toward SDF-controlled territories east of the Euphrates River. The ongoing violence and displacement threaten not only Kurdish communities but also the fragile stability of northern Syria.
The SNA, heavily influenced by Turkey, has faced in the past repeated accusations of systematically targeting Kurdish populations. These include allegations of ethnic cleansing, forced displacement, and efforts to implement demographic changes by resettling displaced Arabs and other groups into traditionally Kurdish areas. This policy has compounded the region’s instability, sowing grievances among Kurdish communities and fuelling ethnic tensions that could spill over into wider conflict.
The growing strain on Kurdish forces, particularly the SDF, has strategic implications beyond immediate displacement. The SDF has long been a key partner in the fight against ISIS, maintaining control over prisons and camps housing thousands of ISIS militants and their families. However, as the SDF diverts its limited resources to defend Kurdish territories from the encroachment of HTS, the SNA, and Turkish-backed forces, its ability to manage and secure these facilities has significantly weakened. This creates a dangerous opening for jihadist groups such as ISIS to regroup and exploit the chaos.
ISIS sleeper cells, already active in the region, could use this moment of distraction to orchestrate prison breaks, attacks, or insurgent campaigns as already experienced in Iraq. Camps like al-Hol, where thousands of ISIS-affiliated individuals are held, have long been hotbeds for radicalisation and recruitment. A reduction in SDF oversight of these sites could lead to the release of experienced fighters and an influx of manpower for jihadist operations, potentially catalyzing a broader resurgence of ISIS in Syria and Iraq.
A Risky Gamble?
A Sunni-led Syria could serve as a significant counterbalance to Shia-dominated, Iran-aligned militias in the region by altering the sectarian and geopolitical power dynamics that currently favour Iran’s influence. Under Sunni leadership, Syria might work to foster alliances with Sunni-majority nations, such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and other Gulf states, which oppose Iran’s regional ambitions.
This realignment could weaken the logistical and ideological support for Iranian-backed militias operating in Syria, including Iraqi and Lebanese groups that have entrenched themselves in key territories. A Sunni-led government in Damascus could also limit Iran’s ability to use Syria as a land bridge to supply Hezbollah and other proxies, disrupting Tehran’s broader strategy of projecting power across the Levant. Moreover, strong Sunni leadership might prioritize rebuilding Sunni communities decimated by war, thereby diminishing the space for Shia ideological expansion and reducing the appeal of Iranian-supported sectarian militias in these regions.
However, if the capture of Damascus by HTS signals a new chapter in Syria’s conflict, also underscores the precarious balance between hope and peril. Without concerted international efforts to stabilise the region, support displaced populations, and counter extremist ideologies, Syria risks becoming a breeding ground for the next wave of jihadism. As the world watches the celebrations in Damascus, the seeds of a potentially darker future may already be taking root.
