Photo credit/Pexels-Ahmed Akacha
The Syrian conflict, marked by years of strife and shifting alliances, has entered a new and volatile phase with significant developments in both domestic and international dynamics.
The capture of Aleppo by Turkish-backed Syrian opposition factions has sent ripples across the region, while regional and international powers, including Russia, US, Turkey, and Iran, continue to shape the conflict through political maneuvers and shifting strategies. These interconnected events underscore the multifaceted nature of the conflict and its far-reaching implications.
The opposition’s seizure of Aleppo represents one of the most consequential victories against the Assad regime to date. This industrial and economic hub, crucial for its infrastructure and resources, fell with surprising ease as the Syrian army retreated. Control over Aleppo now offers the opposition not only a strategic foothold but also the potential to reshape the broader conflict.
The city’s industrial zones, including Sheikh Najjar, Arqoub, and al-Kallasa, hold immense promise for revitalising opposition-held territories and providing refuge for displaced Syrians. Moreover, Aleppo’s fall has disrupted the Assad regime’s influence and its ability to sustain the war effort, marking a significant shift in power dynamics within Syria.
However, as the opposition consolidates control over Aleppo and its surrounding regions, it faces the critical task of establishing governance and stability. This newfound authority presents an opportunity to organise militarily and politically, with plans to form structured defence institutions. However, this effort requires robust coordination and resources to transform Aleppo into a viable administrative and economic centre for the opposition—a goal that is difficult to achieve without economic and political backing from Turkey.
Meanwhile, the international dimensions of the Syrian conflict continue to evolve. Israel has intensified its targeted operations within Syria, focusing on disrupting the activities of Hezbollah and Iranian forces against its borders. In recent days, an Israeli airstrike targeted a vehicle on the road to Damascus International Airport, reportedly killing one person and wounding another. While the identities of those targeted remain undisclosed, such operations align with Israel’s broader goal of preventing the transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon and curbing Iran’s influence in the region.
In parallel, Israeli strikes have extended to border crossings between Syria and Lebanon, including the Jose and Al-Jubaniya crossings, signalling a concerted effort to monitor and disrupt potential arms smuggling routes exploited by Iran. These actions come amid heightened military escalation in Syria and underscore Israel’s continued involvement in the country, driven by its security concerns.
Iran, another key player in the conflict, has expressed sharp criticism of Turkey’s recent actions in Syria. Statements from Iranian officials have described Turkey as aligning itself with the interests of Israel and the United States, accusing it of exacerbating tensions in Syria. Tehran has reiterated its support for the Assad regime, which may include direct military support to assist its ally, mobilise its proxies in Iraq and Yemen, and continue supporting its network of militias in the region in the ongoing war against Israel.
Turkey, for its part, has emphasised the need for a political resolution to the Syrian conflict while defending its military operations as essential for securing its borders and maintaining regional stability. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stressed the importance of Syria’s territorial integrity and stability, aligning with Iraq on these objectives. However, the complexities of the situation on the ground, including the activities of Turkish-backed factions and the evolving map of control, complicate these aspirations.
The shifting battle lines have also drawn attention to the precarious position of Russia’s naval base in Tartus, a strategic asset for Moscow. Reports suggest that Russia may be evacuating some of its naval vessels from Tartus in response to growing instability in the region. The base has been a cornerstone of Russian influence in Syria since 1971, serving both as a staging ground for naval operations and as a symbol of Moscow’s commitment to its ally in Damascus. The potential evacuation highlights the broader geopolitical ramifications of recent events and raises questions about Russia’s long-term strategy in Syria and its willingness to become embroiled in an all-out conflict involving the United States, which also maintains a small contingent along the Syria-Iraq border.
The evolving dynamics in Syria, marked by the interplay of local factions, regional powers, and international actors, have returned the conflict to the forefront of global attention. The capture of Aleppo by opposition forces, the targeted interventions by Israel, and the strategic recalibrations by Iran, Turkey, and Russia illustrate the intricate web of interests shaping Syria’s future. As foreign ministers from key stakeholders prepare to meet in Doha, the stakes are higher than ever, with the potential to redraw the boundaries of influence and forge a new chapter in this protracted conflict. However, these developments also carry the ominous risk of escalating into a broader war that could extend far beyond the borders of the Middle East.
